Race-day live plays
As each race approaches tomorrow, this page updates with live plays built off the actual pools — the Ziemba approach: the win pool tells us each horse's true chances, and we bet the place, show, and exacta pools where they're paying more than those chances justify. Every play on this page — like everything gambling- or investment-related from pregman.trade — carries an estimated ROI and a suggested bet percentage of the day's bankroll. Exotics without pool data run Eddie's diagonal model instead (favorite in the last slot, prices stepping up the order, built out to about $10) — and the finale's High Five is that model, start to finish.
First live update lands Sunday before Race 1. Weather at Elmont: sunny, high 66°F, light jacket weather.
Race 1 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 2 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 3 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 4 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 5 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 6 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 7 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 8 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Race 9 — live plays post here before post time
- Win (live): — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Place play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Show play: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exacta: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
- Exotic ticket: — · est. ROI — · bet —%
Belmont Park — Sunday, October 25, 2026
First post 1:10 PM ET · 9 races · Closing Sunday of the Belmont fall meet · Glen Cove S. (G3) runs in two divisions (Races 5 & 8).
Picks made Saturday from the official Equibase entries (morning-line odds). Scratches and odds will move — the live pick for each race still publishes here on race day as post time approaches. For entertainment only — not betting advice.
The card at a glance
R1 · #6 Limes Don't Lie (3/1)
R2 · #9 Aesthetic Emotion (IRE) (4/1)
R3 · #5 Charlottesuniverse (7/2)
R4 · #3 Social Scene (GB) (3/1)
R5 · #3 Brandy and Me (9/2)
R6 · #5 Pantherian (3/1)
R7 · #3 Material Girl (2/1)
R8 · #10 Amicable Farce (6/1)
R9 · #10 Heaven's Bolt (8/1)
Race 1 — 1:10 PM ET
PICK: #6 Limes Don't Lie (3/1)
Est. ROI +12% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 1% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Chad Brown + Dylan Davis. Brown holds two of the six runners and this McKinzie filly is the better price of his pair against the 7/5 favorite, with a handy 2-lb allowance break.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cozy Curlin Kitten | 4/1 |
| 2 | Kayla's Komet | 7/5 |
| 3 | Minute by Minute | 9/2 |
| 4 | Purloin | 5/1 |
| 5 | Jolly Jolene | 15/1 |
| 6 | Limes Don't Lie | 3/1 |
Race 2 — 1:42 PM ET
PICK: #9 Aesthetic Emotion (IRE) (4/1)
Est. ROI +10% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 1% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
A Kingman filly for Christophe Clement — elite turf pedigree, and Clement wins exactly this kind of 2-year-old turf maiden. Fair value against the 5/2 favorite.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte's Beach | 5/2 |
| 2 | Bueckers | 12/1 |
| 3 | Lucky Luna | 20/1 |
| 4 | Into Rumors | 12/1 |
| 5 | Hardscape | 8/1 |
| 6 | Benediction | 10/1 |
| 7 | Col de La Loze | 7/2 |
| 8 | Palace Joy | 8/1 |
| 9 | Aesthetic Emotion (IRE) | 4/1 |
| 10 | Lady Girvin | 15/1 |
Race 3 — 2:16 PM ET
PICK: #5 Charlottesuniverse (7/2)
Est. ROI +22% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 2% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Casse + Castellano with an Into Mischief filly bred by the Bromans. A better price than Linda Rice's favored pair, with every bit as much upside.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweetest Princess | 5/2 |
| 2 | Rina's Revenge | 5/1 |
| 3 | My First Dinah | 8/1 |
| 4 | Lady Rose | 9/5 |
| 5 | Charlottesuniverse | 7/2 |
| 6 | Giant At Work | 6/1 |
Race 4 — 2:49 PM ET
PICK: #3 Social Scene (GB) (3/1)
Est. ROI +12% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 1% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Kingman filly for WinStar / St. Elias with Will Walden — a pedigree built for a turf sprint, at 3/1 against the 7/5 favorite.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supplier | 10/1 |
| 2 | Break Up (IRE) | 5/1 |
| 3 | Social Scene (GB) | 3/1 |
| 4 | Liz's Image | 15/1 |
| 5 | My Divine Spirit (GB) | 9/2 |
| 6 | Florida Patriot | 7/5 |
| 7 | Romala | 8/1 |
Race 5 — 3:23 PM ET · Glen Cove S. (G3), Division 1
PICK: #3 Brandy and Me (9/2)
Est. ROI +21% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 1% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Saffie Joseph Jr. + Paco Lopez in a turf stakes — a barn-and-rider combo that wins these spots. 9/2 against the 3/1 topweight is the value seat.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Light Won Up | 6/1 |
| 2 | Paris Carver | 8/1 |
| 3 | Brandy and Me | 9/2 |
| 4 | Ground Support | 3/1 |
| 5 | Peppermint Twist | 15/1 |
| 6 | Snappy Comeback | 10/1 |
| 7 | Spirit Doll | 10/1 |
| 8 | New Rose | 15/1 |
| 9 | Emblaze | 6/1 |
| 10 | Beach Heist | 6/1 |
Race 6 — 3:57 PM ET
PICK: #5 Pantherian (3/1)
Est. ROI +20% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 2% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Pletcher + Franco, and two positive angles at once: first start since being gelded, plus first-time Lasix. The play against the 6/5 favorite.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sorority Prank | 8/1 |
| 2 | Anderman | 12/1 |
| 3 | Gonzalo | 20/1 |
| 4 | East Coast Girl | 7/2 |
| 5 | Pantherian | 3/1 |
| 6 | Mo for the King | 6/5 |
| 7 | Kid Rich | 15/1 |
| 8 | Romantic Charmer | 15/1 |
Race 7 — 4:31 PM ET
PICK: #3 Material Girl (2/1)
Est. ROI +20% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 3% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Chad Brown + Manny Franco. The Central Banker filly looks the class of this state-bred field — the one favorite on the card worth taking at the price.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | K Gun | 9/2 |
| 2 | Princess Wadadli | 15/1 |
| 3 | Material Girl | 2/1 |
| 4 | Liberty's Secret | 5/2 |
| 5 | Furry Fox | 10/1 |
| 6 | Sunshine Lily | 15/1 |
| 7 | Central to Success | 7/2 |
| 8 | Miss American Pie | 30/1 |
Race 8 — 5:05 PM ET · Glen Cove S. (G3), Division 2
PICK: #10 Amicable Farce (6/1)
Est. ROI +26% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 1% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Brown + Santana, and a serious turf pedigree — Not This Time out of a Frankel mare. 6/1 against Lion Lake's 8/5 is where the value sits.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Life's Dynamic | 9/2 |
| 2 | Pillar of Beauty | 12/1 |
| 3 | Flowerhead (IRE) | 10/1 |
| 4 | Carolyncaroline | 15/1 |
| 5 | Lion Lake (IRE) | 8/5 |
| 6 | Epic Lady Luck | 15/1 |
| 7 | Catalonia | 30/1 |
| 8 | Hark Theangelssing | 8/1 |
| 9 | Green Sense (IRE) | 12/1 |
| 10 | Amicable Farce | 6/1 |
| 11 | R Slew of Cash | 20/1 |
Race 9 — 5:38 PM ET
PICK: #10 Heaven's Bolt (8/1)
Est. ROI +26% (vs morning line) · Suggested bet 1% of bankroll — both update with live odds tomorrow
Mike Maker + Manny Franco in a turf claiming sprint — Maker places these to win. Best price among the real contenders.
| No. | Horse | M/L |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bouquetry | 30/1 |
| 2 | Best Not Miss | 12/1 |
| 3 | Sinead | 6/1 |
| 4 | Golden Beach | 15/1 |
| 5 | Meadowlark Drive | 10/1 |
| 6 | Scorch | 9/5 |
| 7 | Juliet On Approach | 12/1 |
| 8 | Leslie's Star | 30/1 |
| 9 | Clap Back | 12/1 |
| 10 | Heaven's Bolt | 8/1 |
| 11 | Five Dozen Roses | 5/1 |
| 12 | On a Summer Day | 15/1 |
| 13 | Cocoa Mills (AE) | 10/1 |
| 14 | It's Nancytime Now (AE) | 12/1 |